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Systemic electioneering from the evangelical pulpit: Evidence from a computational analysis
Marc S Jacob1, Yphtach Lelkes2, Samuel Wolken2
1University of Notre Dame, Keough School of Global Affairs, Notre Dame, IN 46556.
Summary
Many evangelical churches engage in prohibited political advocacy during elections, particularly close to Election Day. This mobilization is driven by local partisan contexts, not national electoral strategies.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Religious Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- Religious institutions' involvement in electoral politics raises concerns for democratic governance.
- Evangelical churches in the U.S. have shown increasing engagement in political mobilization.
- Prohibited electoral advocacy by religious institutions is a significant issue under IRS guidelines.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the extent of prohibited political speech from U.S. evangelical pulpits.
- To analyze the electoral rhythm and geographic patterns of church-based political advocacy.
- To understand the drivers behind religious institutions' engagement in electioneering.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a large corpus of 88,546 sermons from predominantly evangelical churches.
- Transcription of 63,683 hours of Sunday services across multiple election cycles (2020, 2022, 2024) and a control period.
- Geographic analysis correlating advocacy with county partisan composition.
Main Results:
- 14.7% of churches engaged in direct political advocacy or endorsements around the 2024 election.
- Political speech peaked on the Sunday before Election Day, with 3.5% of churches mobilizing.
- Advocacy correlated with local partisanship but lacked strategic targeting in swing vs. safe states.
Conclusions:
- A significant portion of evangelical churches engage in prohibited electioneering, violating IRS guidelines.
- Church political mobilization exhibits an electoral rhythm, driven by local partisan contexts.
- The findings highlight a base mobilization strategy rather than a national electoral approach.
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