Integration of temporal patterns, genotypic response, and environmental-determinants on aphid infestation in wheat

Aphids are among the most destructive insect pests of wheat, with their population dynamics strongly influenced by host genotype, sowing time, and prevailing environmental conditions. This study evaluated aphid infestation across seven sowing dates and 12 wheat genotypes, evaluating relationship with natural enemies and weather factors with a goal of identifying sowing dates and genotypes associated with low aphid density. Seasonal mean aphid density differed significantly among genotypes for each sowing date. Of the 12 genotypes of wheat studied, two were highly susceptible and two consistently showed lower infestation. Aphid outbreaks peaked between 14 and 27 February, with maximum populations recorded on 20 and 27 February across several genotypes. Natural enemies such as Coccinellids, Chrysopids, Syrphids, and parasitoids displayed significant positive associations with aphid abundance, suggesting they are able to track cues to find prey, and may play a regulatory role. Abiotic factors were strongly predictive of infestation: averaging across all genotypes of wheat, aphid abundance decreased with temperature, with temperature alone explaining 73.5% of the variation in abundance. Aphid abundance also decreased with hours of daylight (explaining an additional 14.1% of the variation in abundance). These findings demonstrate that aphid population dynamics in wheat are genotype-specific and environmentally driven, with mid-to-late February identified as the most critical infestation window. Selecting resistant/tolerant genotypes, adjusting sowing dates, and leveraging the role of natural enemies provide a sustainable pathway for aphid management. These insights are vital for refining integrated pest management strategies under changing climatic conditions.