Modeling for Nuclear Disaster Planning and Preparedness

Mathematical modeling projects consequences of disasters based on algorithms and parameters, with explicit assumptions that can be varied to explore potential variation in outcomes. Modeling of mechanical trauma, thermal burn, and ionizing radiation injuries due to nuclear detonations has been used at the Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (HHS/ASPR) to inform needs assessments for medical countermeasures. Physiological modeling for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) projects outcomes of injury from ionizing radiation combined with mechanical trauma and/or thermal burns including effects on physical capabilities, which are used to evaluate the population consequences of nuclear detonations. Public health response modeling explores the effects of variation in operational practices such as triage and allocation of resources for treatment, which informs decisions and practices toward improvement in planning for response to nuclear detonations. Research can inform assumptions and algorithms of modeling, and strategic use of modeling can further inform planning for such topics as shielding, survival, and survivor behavior like sheltering and evacuation.