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Hospital Medical Surge Capacity Assessment and Planning Tools for Disaster Response: A Systematic Review and

Hisham Hassan Ali Dinar¹, Omer Abdel Fattah Othman², Ives Hubloue³

¹Directorate of Emergencies, The National Health Emergency Operations Center, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness

|May 19, 2026

Abstract

Background:

Hospital surge capacity is pivotal for disaster response, yet the effectiveness of assessment and planning tools remains underexplored.

Objective:

This systematic review evaluates the reliability, validity, and applicability of surge capacity tools across disaster scenarios.

Methods:

Following PRISMA guidelines, we analyzed 24 Q1 studies (PubMed, Scopus) using the PICO framework. Risk of bias was assessed via ROBINS-E, and meta-analysis (random-effects model) quantified pooled effect sizes (ES). Subgroup analyses compared simulation tools, surveys, and resource strategies.

Results:

The combined ES was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67-0.82), indicating moderate improvement in preparedness. Simulation tools (Group A) showed the highest consistency (ES = 0.81, I² = 0%), while resource strategies (Group C) had wider variability (ES = 0.71, I² = 74.42%). Egger's regression revealed publication bias (P = 0.004), and heterogeneity was substantial (I² = 76.70%).

Conclusions:

Simulation-based tools are most effective for surge capacity, whereas resource strategies require contextual adaptation. Policymakers should prioritize standardized benchmarks and DSS integration, with future research addressing equity and real-world implementation gaps.

Keywords:

Medical surge capacity assessment tools disaster response hospital preparedness meta-analysis planning tools systematic review

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