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Revised Baux Score Identifies a New Risk Factor for Mortality: History of Diabetes
Timothy Nehila1, Marian Mikhael1, Shreya Arora1
1SF Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL.
Advances in Skin & Wound Care
|May 19, 2026
Summary
Diabetes history is a newly identified risk factor for burn patient mortality. Including this in predictive models may improve accuracy for burn survival rates.
Area of Science:
- Trauma Surgery
- Burn Care
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Predictive models for burn mortality are crucial for patient management.
- Existing models often lack widely accepted objective measures impacting mortality.
- Key factors include age, burn depth, TBSA, and inhalation injury.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify prognostic factors for mortality in adult burn patients.
- To evaluate the impact of objective variables on burn patient survival.
- To propose an updated mortality prediction equation.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of burn patients (≥18 years) from 2015-2020.
- Stepwise forward logistic-regression analysis to identify risk factors.
- Inclusion criteria based on objective variables for mortality prediction.
Main Results:
- 963 patients analyzed; 4% mortality rate.
- Identified risk factors: increased age, TBSA, inhalation injury, third-degree burns, and diabetes history.
- Diabetes history emerged as a novel prognostic factor.
Conclusions:
- Diabetes history is a significant, previously unrecognized prognostic factor for burn mortality.
- Incorporating diabetes status into models can enhance mortality prediction accuracy.
- A new equation including diabetes is proposed for burn patient mortality calculation.
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