ICU-specific determinants of mortality in critically ill patients with infective endocarditis : Mortality predictors in ICU patients with infective endocarditis
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Dilek Kuzukiran Kocatas1, Behiye Deniz Kosovali2, Nevzat Mehmet Mutlu2
1Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye, Turkey. drdilek06@hotmail.com.
Insights
Infective endocarditis (IE) in the ICU has high mortality. Key predictors include neurological status (Glasgow Coma Scale), nutritional risk (NRS), fungal cause, and coronary artery disease, guiding early risk stratification.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Critical Care Medicine
Background:
- Infective endocarditis (IE) presents a significant challenge with high morbidity and mortality, particularly in intensive care unit (ICU) patients.
- Despite advances, critically ill IE patients face elevated mortality rates, necessitating early identification of prognostic factors.
- Optimizing management through early predictor identification is crucial for improving outcomes in severe IE cases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with infective endocarditis (IE).
- To evaluate the predictive performance of severity scores like APACHE II and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in this population.
- To inform early risk stratification and enhance multidisciplinary management strategies for critically ill IE patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 59 adult IE patients admitted to the ICU.
- Analysis of demographic data, comorbidities, microbiological findings, clinical severity scores, and laboratory parameters at ICU admission.
- Utilized Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, multivariable logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards regression for mortality prediction and validation.
Main Results:
- Overall in-ICU mortality was 52.5%.
- Independent predictors of mortality included lower GCS score, coronary artery disease, fungal etiology, and higher Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) score.
- Factors associated with increased mortality hazard during ICU follow-up included septic embolism, coronary artery disease, elevated total bilirubin, increased creatinine, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, and lower albumin levels.
Conclusions:
- Mortality in critically ill IE patients remains high, underscoring the need for effective prognostic tools.
- Neurological status (GCS), nutritional risk (NRS), fungal etiology, and coronary artery disease are key determinants of mortality risk.
- Findings emphasize the importance of early risk stratification and tailored ICU management to improve outcomes for this high-risk patient group.
Objective:
Infective endocarditis (IE) remains a life-threatening infectious disease characterized by high morbidity and mortality despite substantial advances in diagnostic and therapeutic strategies (Eur Heart J 44:3948-4042, 2023, Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 44:1325-1333, 2025). Patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission represent the most severe clinical spectrum of IE and continue to exhibit markedly elevated mortality rates (Klimik Derg 32:2-116, Klimik Derg 36:216-225, 2023). Early identification of mortality predictors in critically ill patients is essential for optimizing multidisciplinary management strategies and improving clinical outcomes (Eur Heart J 44:3948-4042, 2023, Open Forum Infect Dis 12:ofaf628, 2025). The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality among patients with infective endocarditis managed in the intensive care unit of a tertiary care center.
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study included 59 adult patients with infective endocarditis who were managed in the intensive care unit of Ankara Bilkent City Hospital between 2022 and 2025. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, microbiological findings, clinical severity scores, and laboratory parameters obtained at ICU admission were analyzed. The primary outcome was defined as in-ICU mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to evaluate the predictive performance of the APACHE II score and the GCS. The AUCs of APACHE II and GCS were compared using DeLong's test for correlated ROC curves. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Time-to-event analysis was conducted using a Cox proportional hazards regression model to evaluate factors associated with mortality during ICU follow-up. Internal validation of the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models was performed using bootstrap resampling (10000 iterations).
Results:
The mean age of the cohort was 62.3 ± 19.0 years. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 52.5% (n = 31). ROC analysis demonstrated that the Glasgow Coma Scale showed a numerically higher discriminative performance compared with the APACHE II score (AUC: 0.758 vs. 0.717); however, the difference was not statistically significant. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified lower GCS score (OR = 0.75, p = 0.017), presence of coronary artery disease (OR = 11.23, p = 0.008), fungal etiology (OR = 38.96, p = 0.008), and higher Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) score (OR = 1.90, p = 0.043) as independent predictors of in-ICU mortality (Heart Fail Rev 30:1377-1395, 2025, Expert Consensus on the Prevention of Secondary Mucormycosis Following Respiratory Viral Infections, 2026). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, septic embolism (HR = 6.58, p = 0.047), coronary artery disease (HR = 3.23, p = 0.007), elevated total bilirubin (HR = 2.58, p = 0.006), increased creatinine (HR = 1.48, p = 0.006), elevated lactate dehydrogenase (HR = 1.001, p = 0.030), and lower albumin levels (HR = 0.92, p = 0.039) were independently associated with increased mortality hazard during ICU follow-up (Klimik Derg 32:2-116, 2020, Heart Fail Rev 30:1377-1395, 2025).
Conclusion:
Mortality among critically ill patients with infective endocarditis remains substantially high despite contemporary management strategies (Eur Heart J 44:3948-4042, 2023, Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 44:1325-1333, 2025). Neurological status assessed by GCS, nutritional risk evaluated by NRS, fungal etiology, and coronary artery disease emerged as key determinants of mortality risk, while septic embolism and markers of multiorgan dysfunction influenced mortality over time (Heart Fail Rev 30:1377-1395, 2025, Expert Consensus on the Prevention of Secondary Mucormycosis Following Respiratory Viral Infections, 2026). These findings highlight the importance of early risk stratification and multidisciplinary management and support the development of ICU-specific prognostic models to improve outcomes in this high-risk population (Eur Heart J 40:3222-3232, 2019, Open Forum Infect Dis 12:ofaf628, 2025).
Clinical Trial Number:
Not applicable.
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