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[Realization Path of China's Green and Low-carbon Transformation Driven by the Digital Economy]
Dan-Xue Fan1,2, Mei-Yue Li3
1School of Statistics and Data Science, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020, China.
Abstract:
To reconcile the tension between developmental priorities and environmental sustainability, transitioning toward eco-friendly decarbonized economic systems has emerged as a crucial strategic imperative. By applying the system dynamics method, a dynamic simulation model including five subsystems(economy, population, science and technology, energy, and environment)was constructed to systematically analyze the interaction mechanisms among these subsystems and to explore the driving effect of the digital economy on the green and low-carbon transformation from 2011 to 2030. Through the simulation analysis of the benchmark scenario, core scenario (driven by the digital economy), auxiliary scenario (driven by technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading), and comprehensive scenario (driven by multiple factors), the results showed that: ① In the single driving scenario, the green and low-carbon transformation oriented by the digital economy had the best effect, with the carbon emissions per unit of GDP decreasing by 40.79% compared to the benchmark scenario and the green GDP increasing by 53.30×1012 trillion yuan. ② The comprehensive scenario generated a multiplier effect, with the reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP expanding to 46.38% and the green GDP exceeding 294.95×1012 yuan. This study not only verified the "1+1>2" transformation rule of multi-factor synergy but also constructed a systematic transformation framework of "digital traction-innovation drive-industrial restructuring," providing a decision-making basis for formulating an integrated policy system for green and low-carbon transformation.
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