[Spatiotemporal Dynamic Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Yellow River Basin （Henan Section） and Analysis of Its...

The scientific estimation of carbon storage changes resulting from land cover alterations can substantially enhance the precision of carbon storage assessments for terrestrial ecosystems and further deepen the understanding of their future carbon sequestration potential. This study focuses on the impact of carbon storage variations by examining 62 districts within the Yellow River Basin （Henan section）. Based on the PLUS model， this study examines the dynamic trends of land use change in the Yellow River Basin （Henan section） from 1985 to 2020， while dynamic carbon density， in conjunction with the InVEST model， is employed to simulate the changes in carbon storage from 1985 to 2020 and under various scenarios for 2035. The GeoDetector is applied to identify the key factors influencing carbon storage variations. The results indicate the following： ① From 1985 to 2020， the area of arable land decreased from 66% to 56%， while areas of shrubland， grassland， and other land types generally shrank. Conversely， the area of built-up land expanded significantly. ② Overall， carbon storage showed a decline followed by an increase over the period from 1985 to 2020， with a spatial distribution pattern characterized by "higher values in the southwest and lower values in the central and eastern regions." ③ In future scenario simulations， carbon storage declines under all scenarios except for the cropland protection scenario， while the ecological protection scenario exhibits a high carbon storage potential. ④ The spatial variability of carbon storage was driven by multiple factors， with NDVI and population density identified as the most influential. NDVI demonstrated the strongest explanatory power for carbon storage fluctuations， with its explanatory capacity further enhanced by interactions with other factors. These findings offer critical insights for the sustainable management and ecological protection of resources in the Yellow River Basin and hold significant implications for advancing regional green development and ecological sustainability.