[Estimation of Economic Value of LUCC and Carbon Storage in Xinjiang by Coupled PLUS-InVEST Model]

Land use/cover change （LUCC） is a key factor influencing the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem carbon storage. Clarifying the relationship between carbon storage and LUCC， as well as its economic value， is crucial for maintaining regional carbon balance and optimizing land use patterns. This study takes Xinjiang， a typical arid and semi-arid region， as an example. It couples the PLUS-InVEST model to explore the spatiotemporal response characteristics of LUCC and carbon storage from 1990 to 2020. Additionally， it simulates the evolution of LUCC and carbon storage under three scenarios （base period development， arable land protection， and ecological protection） for the year 2060 and estimates the economic value of carbon storage using compound interest formulas. The results are as follows： ① During this period， Xinjiang experienced a "two increases and four decreases" pattern in LUCC. The cropland area increased significantly by 33 219.22 km²， while forest and water areas decreased substantially by 10 797.16 km² and 14 934.42 km²， respectively. ② Total carbon storage in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 showed a "first decrease then increase" trend， with a net decrease of 0.13×10⁸ t. It had significant spatial heterogeneity， presenting a "high in three mountains， low in two basins" pattern. In 2060， the spatial pattern of carbon storage in each scenario is basically the same as that in 2020， but the quantity shows an increasing trend. Among them， the ecological protection scenario has the largest carbon storage increase of 1.74×10⁸ t. ③ The economic value of carbon storage in Xinjiang increased by 1 126.199 billion yuan from 1990 to 2020， with a growth rate of 80.89%. In 2060， among all the scenarios， the ecological protection scenario has the highest economic value of carbon storage， reaching 5 630.080 billion yuan. Future efforts should prioritize ecological protection to enhance the economic value of regional carbon storage. This study provides a universal model for assessing carbon resource asset potential and offers scientific basis for the low-carbon adjustment of land use structure in arid and semi-arid regions.