COVID-19 and suicide in Japan from March 2020 to February 2023

We estimate excess mortality due to suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan and the extent to which the increase in unemployment can explain it. Using a time-series model, as well as pre-COVID private-sector forecasts of the unemployment rate, we find that the COVID-19 crisis increased suicides in Japan by approximately 11,000 from March 2020 to February 2023. Furthermore, the increase in unemployment can account for less than 10 percent of this increase. We also find that the excess deaths due to suicides are skewed towards younger generations and females and that lost years of life expectancy associated with the excess deaths due to suicide are almost as large as those associated with COVID-19 deaths.