Predicting the potential distribution of Euryale ferox in China under future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling

Climate change poses a threat to both the natural habitat and the sustainable production of Euryale ferox, a valuable aquatic crop. To address this issue, our study employed an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to project the climatic suitability of E. ferox distribution in China for the 2030-2070 s under four climate scenarios. Utilizing 130 occurrence records of E. ferox and 20 ecological factors, we identified four primary factors influencing the distribution of E. ferox. The optimal conditions for E. ferox include elevations below 184.8 m, the temperature of the warmest season exceeds 25.7°C, the precipitation of the wettest month ranging between 167 and 718 mm, and precipitation over 9.5 mm in the driest month. The accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions was comprehensively evaluated by the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.942) and the true skill statistic (TSS = 0.783), indicating its effectiveness in forecasting suitable environments. We also found that the current areas of highly and moderately suitable habitats are 0.909 × 10⁵ km² and 3.324 × 10⁵ km², respectively. Compared to the current scenario, future projections indicate a significant increase in suitable areas. Furthermore, except for SSP245, the distribution centroid is projected to move southwestward then northward under other climate scenarios. These findings suggest that climate change may broadly benefit the expansion of E. ferox, offering critical insights for the formulation of regional conservation and cultivation strategies.