Stability and change in personal fertility ideals among US women in heterosexual relationships

Demographers typically ask about societal, not personal, fertility ideals. Societal ideals are probably more stable than personal ideals. Assessing whether personal fertility ideals are as stable as societal ideals could inform models of population fertility change and models of well-being associated with fertility outcomes.

We use the two-wave National Survey of Fertility Barriers (NSFB) to model stability and change in fertility ideals among 879 women in heterosexual couples that persisted for both waves.

Personal fertility ideals are stable for most (69%) women, but roughly one-third adjust their ideal number between waves. Of the women who changed their personal fertility ideal, approximately half increase and half decrease their personal fertility ideal over time. Multinomial logistic regression indicates that women with a higher fertility ideal at Wave 1 had higher odds of increasing and lower odds of decreasing their fertility ideal by Wave 2. Higher education was associated with lower likelihood of increasing fertility ideals. In addition, full-time employment at the initial interview was associated with higher likelihood of decreasing fertility ideals.

Individual characteristics, attitudes, life course, and social cues are associated with changes in personal fertility ideals. More characteristics were associated with decreases than increases in personal fertility ideals.

By demonstrating that many women change personal fertility ideals over three years, the current study advances understanding of variations in fertility experiences. Importantly, these findings can also inform policies and interventions designed to support child and maternal health.