Fluidity in fertility timing intentions among childless men and women

This study examines how childless individuals revise their intended age at first birth as they move through adulthood, providing a longitudinal view of how fertility timing delays unfold over the reproductive years. Using 14 waves of German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) data for the 1981-1983 and 1991-1993 birth cohorts, it tracks changes in intended timing and lifetime fertility orientations across five-year age intervals and annual partnership transitions. Results show that intentions to have a first child after age 35 are rare in early adulthood, with late first birth expectations and disengagement from childbearing emerging when earlier plans remain unfulfilled. A strong digit preference in the intended age is observed, with men favouring round numbers, and women postponing more gradually. Partnership status plays a decisive role, especially in later life, shaping whether the intentions are maintained, adjusted, realised or discontinued. Overall, the study confirms the fluid and context-dependent nature of fertility timing intentions.