Suitable habitats for Ebrechtella tricuspidata (Araneae, Thomisidae) in China under climate change: implications for...

The crab spider Ebrechtella tricuspidata is a vital indigenous natural enemy in China's agroecosystems, yet its potential distribution dynamics under changing climates remain unquantified. We utilized optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models-configured with Hinge-Product-Threshold feature classes and a regularization multiplier of 1.5 based on AICc selection-to identify key distributional drivers and project future range shifts. The model demonstrated high discriminatory ability (mean AUC = 0.886). Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio10) were identified as the primary environmental determinants, with the species exhibiting a distinct preference for warm (20-28 °C) and humid (> 500 mm) habitats. Under current conditions, the total suitable habitat is approximately 2.15 × 10⁶ km². Future projections indicate a robust northward and westward expansion, with high-suitability core habitats projected to increase nearly fourfold by the 2070s under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Crucially, we emphasize that realized colonization will be contingent upon the species' dispersal capabilities, phenological synchronization with floral resources, and complex biotic interactions. These findings provide a potential spatial-temporal framework for "climate-smart" pest management, suggesting that proactive habitat manipulation could facilitate the long-term efficacy of this predator in a warming climate.