Climate change induced complex shifts in snake distributions expose people to snakebite and threaten biodiversity

Snakes play pivotal roles in many ecosystems. While some species, including medically important ones, are considered threatened by the IUCN, snakebite takes a heavy toll on rural agricultural populations in the developing world. Approximately 138,000 deaths and 400,000 disabilities result from snakebite annually and WHO has pledged to reduce the resulting health burden by 50% by 2030. Among a plethora of reasons for insufficient snakebite mitigation, one is limited explicit knowledge of how, where, and when humans and snakes interact, which limits the timely, accurate, and efficient deployment of resources. Here, we revise the list of medically important snakes based on recent taxonomic updates and use high-resolution data from a broad range of published and unpublished resources to compare expert-derived ranges with statistical geographical models of habitat suitability for all 508 most medically important snake species globally. Our study is the first to model every single medically important snake species including data deficient ones, at the highest resolution to date, and with the largest supporting occurrence dataset. We generate geographically explicit estimates of how much human and snake populations overlap (snake-human-overlap-index; SHOI), which is the most fundamental prerequisite for human-snake conflict to occur. Finally, we model the effects of climate change on snake distributions. We predict substantial, short- and long-term shifts in snake distributions, including range contractions for many threatened species and increased human exposure to species of major public health concern. In combination with other drivers of increased snake-human conflict, such as human behaviours and snake traits, our predictions can be used to decide where to stockpile which antivenom, how to ensure adequate capacity of individual health facilities, how to improve health care accessibility of remote at-risk communities, and where to focus conservation efforts for threatened snake species. Hence, we highlight the need for geographically targeted efforts to benefit both vulnerable human and snake populations, as part of a One-Health strategy.