Methodological limitations of jumping to conclusions tasks

The jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias is frequently measured using probabilistic reasoning tasks like the beads task and its variants. The JTC bias has theoretical links to the development of delusions and delusional ideation beliefs. However, in more recent work, the ability for these tasks to accurately measure the JTC bias has been questioned, with inconsistent results being reported which contradict the previous delusions theory. In this paper we discuss four limitations of JTC tasks related to validity: first, interpreting scores and defining JTC behaviour, second, participant experiences of task difficulty and the impact on aspects of data quality including attention, motivation, and comprehension, third, ecological validity and the reliance on probabilistic rules, and fourth, variability in participants strategies while completing JTC tasks. Through discussion of each of these limitations we demonstrate how JTC task outcomes may be misconstrued and we encourage careful consideration of how the JTC bias is measured in future research.