Mobility patterns predict increasing polarization between neighborhoods

This paper investigates the relationship between neighborhood mobility patterns and political polarization in the United States, with a focus on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Using everyday mobility data from SafeGraph and election results at the census block group level, we examine how neighborhood disadvantage, measured both residentially and via mobility ties, predicts shifts in support for Donald Trump. Our findings demonstrate that predominantly White neighborhoods with mobility connections to disadvantaged neighborhoods experienced increased Republican voting, while those connected to more advantaged neighborhoods saw declines in Republican support from 2012 to 2016/2020. Moreover, we find that mobility-based disadvantage constitutes a growing portion of the variation in voting patterns across multiple election cycles, indicating a durable and widening gap in political polarization. Our analysis shows that the vote gap for Republican candidates between the least and most mobility-disadvantaged White neighborhoods has expanded from a single-digit difference in 2012 to a 40% gap in 2020. These results suggest that mobility patterns are especially strong predictors of increasing political polarization beyond the static characteristics of residential neighborhoods.