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Does negative affective forecasting increase the risk of suicidal ideation?
Jala Rizeq1, Marianne E Etherson2, Rory C O'Connor2
1School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Journal of Psychiatric Research
|May 22, 2026
Summary
Negative affective forecasting, or predicting negative emotions, is linked to suicidal ideation. This study found it worsens the impact of depression and defeat on suicidal thoughts, highlighting its clinical relevance.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Clinical Psychology
- Neuroscience
Background:
- Suicidal ideation is a critical precursor to suicidal behavior, necessitating identification of predictive factors.
- Affective forecasting, the estimation of future emotional responses, influences decision-making and may contribute to suicidal ideation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between negative affective forecasting and suicidal ideation.
- To investigate the moderating role of negative affective forecasting on the relationship between depression, entrapment, defeat, and suicidal ideation.
Main Methods:
- A short-term longitudinal study with 262 participants (aged 18-81, 72.52% female) across two time points.
- Online questionnaires assessed depressive symptoms, defeat, entrapment, suicidal ideation, and negative affective predictions for hypothetical future events.
Main Results:
- Higher negativity in affective forecasting showed cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with increased suicidal ideation.
- Negative affective forecasting did not independently predict suicidal ideation beyond established risk factors.
- Negative affective forecasting moderated the impact of depression, defeat, and entrapment on suicidal ideation, amplifying their effects.
Conclusions:
- Affective forecasting is a significant factor in suicide risk.
- Further research on affective forecasting in suicide risk is warranted.
- Consideration of affective forecasting in clinical interventions for suicidal ideation is recommended.
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