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Dropout in supervised small-group exercise programs: a 7-year retrospective cohort study
Carlos Eduardo Rosa da Silva1, Wilian de Jesus Santana1, Vinicius Morales1
1GETAFIS - São Judas Tadeu University, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Frontiers in Public Health
|May 25, 2026
Summary
Supervised small-group exercise programs see high dropout rates, with nearly half leaving within a year. Male sex, overweight status, and weight-loss goals are key predictors of early discontinuation.
Area of Science:
- Exercise science
- Public health
- Behavioral science
Background:
- Dropout from exercise programs is a significant challenge for public health.
- Supervised small-group training shows promise for improving adherence.
- Limited evidence exists on the effectiveness of these programs in preventing dropout.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the average participation duration in a supervised small-group training program.
- To identify key factors predicting dropout among adult participants.
- To analyze retrospective data from a personalized training studio.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 587 participants (2018-2024) in São Paulo, Brazil.
- Analysis of variables including sex, physical activity level, BMI, and exercise motivation.
- Statistical methods included Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox regression, and CHAID decision trees.
Main Results:
- Mean participation was 13.8 months; 12-month survival rate was 51.7%.
- Predictors of shorter participation included male sex, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m², and weight-loss as a primary goal.
- Decision tree analysis identified male sex, weight-loss goals, and low physical activity as strong dropout predictors.
Conclusions:
- Dropout in supervised small-group training is progressive, with high attrition in the first year.
- Male sex, overweight status (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²), and weight-loss goals are significant predictors of dropout.
- Combined factors amplify dropout risk, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
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