A Comprehensive Comparison of Transition Point Detection Methods for Monkeypox - Africa, 2024-2025

Since May 2022, the global outbreak of mpox has presented a substantial public health challenge, with recent severe resurgences reported in several African countries, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

This study developed compartmental- and network-based models using epidemiological data from the DRC, a country that has experienced a recent major outbreak. The applicability of the four methods for transition point detection in mpox transmission was confirmed for the first time. The strengths and limitations of each approach were evaluated systematically and quantitatively.

These findings provide theoretical guidance for identifying epidemic transition points in the mpox outbreak response and offer a reference for the rational allocation of public health resources during epidemics.