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Relative age effect in high-skill labor markets: evidence from the NBA
1School of Human Movement and Sport Sciences, Levinsky-Wingate Academic Center - Wingate Campus, Netanya, Israel.
Frontiers in Sports and Active Living
|May 25, 2026
Summary
The relative age effect (RAE) does not appear to impact NBA players
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Human Kinetics
- Sports Psychology
Background:
- The relative age effect (RAE) is a phenomenon where athletes born earlier in the calendar year have a performance advantage.
- Previous research suggests RAE influences talent identification and development in youth sports.
- The existence and impact of RAE on professional basketball, specifically the NBA, remain under-explored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the presence of the relative age effect (RAE) in the National Basketball Association (NBA).
- To determine if relatively younger athletes (born in the fourth quarter) exhibit compensatory physical or positional characteristics.
- To analyze the relationship between birth date, anthropometrics, playing position, and draft outcomes in the NBA.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of birth dates, anthropometric data (height, weight), playing positions, and draft outcomes for 537 NBA players from the 2024 season.
- Utilized Chi-square tests and regression analyses to assess statistical significance.
- Compared players born in different quarters of the year.
Main Results:
- No significant skew towards earlier birth months was observed among NBA players.
- Late-born players (Q4) did not demonstrate significantly greater height, weight, or a higher likelihood of playing Center.
- Draft outcomes did not differ significantly based on birth quarter, indicating no RAE in NBA labor market outcomes.
- The survivor effect observed in earlier development stages does not appear to extend to professional outcomes.
Conclusions:
- The relative age effect does not significantly influence player selection or outcomes in the NBA.
- Coaches and scouts should consider late-born athletes to improve talent utilization and reduce potential losses in sports systems.
- Findings suggest RAE's impact diminishes at the professional level, challenging assumptions about its pervasive influence.
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