Genomic, Clinical, and Spatial Predictors of Durable Response to BRAF/MEK Inhibition in BRAF-Mutant Melanoma

BRAF-targeted therapy (BRAFi/MEKi) and immune checkpoint blockade (anti-PD-1/anti-CTLA-4) have transformed the treatment of BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma. While most patients who respond to targeted therapy eventually progress, a subset derives durable benefit, and biomarkers to identify this subset would inform optimal treatment selection. In this study, we analyzed pre-treatment tumor samples from a clinically annotated cohort of 155 patients with BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma treated with first-line BRAFi/MEKi and followed for up to five years. We stratified patients into durable responders (PFS ≥ 24 months) and rapid progressors (PFS < 6 months with progression) and found that a global metric of tumor genomic heterogeneity, rather than individual gene alterations, distinguished these groups. Combining genomic heterogeneity with baseline tumor burden (e.g., lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) or radiographic lesion dimensions), we developed a parsimonious model that predicted durable responders with high precision and specificity. Notably, the analogous population of patients treated instead with immunotherapy were not durable responders, suggesting that the selected predictors of durable responders are targeted therapy specific. Spatial profiling of a subset of pre-treatment biopsies (n = 47) demonstrated that high intratumoral, but not peritumoral, CD8⁺ T-cell infiltration correlated with prolonged survival on BRAF-targeted therapy and served as an independent predictive factor when considered with genomic heterogeneity and features of clinical tumor burden. Together, these findings highlight the distinct baseline intrinsic and extrinsic features underlying durable response to BRAF-targeted therapy and support their potential implication in guiding treatment selection for patients with BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma.