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Risk-based sensitivity analysis of urban gas infrastructure in new district planning
Lei Gao1, Hao Liu1,2, Hui Lan3,4
1School of Economics and Management, University of Emergency Management, Sanhe, 065201, China.
Abstract:
Urban gas infrastructure resilience is critical for public safety, yet rapidly expanding networks face increasing vulnerability. This study develops a system dynamics-based framework to identify key leverage points for enhancing gas infrastructure resilience in new urban districts. Using a three-tier indicator system of 32 risk factors across four dimensions, analytic hierarchy process weighting is integrated with system dynamics modeling in a case study of a new district in China. Sensitivity analysis reveals that system's inherent resilience contributes most significantly, with the proportion of high-pressure pipelines exhibiting the highest sensitivity, followed by population-infrastructure spatial coupling and building seismic resistance. These findings demonstrate that planning-phase interventions targeting high-sensitivity indicators offer the most efficient pathway to enhancing urban gas infrastructure resilience, challenging conventional priorities that emphasize emergency response over foundational design considerations.
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