Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Wildlife Management

Background:

• Human activities significantly influence biodiversity, often by altering species interactions.
• The role of human presence in mediating predator-prey dynamics and species range expansion is understudied.
• Understanding these complex interactions is crucial for effective wildlife conservation and management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how anthropogenic, biotic, and abiotic factors influence the continental-scale expansion of the golden jackal.
• To determine the primary limiting factors for golden jackal occurrence and the impact of human presence on these interactions.
• To predict the potential future range expansion of golden jackals under various ecological scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a dataset of playback surveys across Europe to assess golden jackal presence.
• Employed a fitted distribution model to predict potential habitat suitability and range expansion.
• Analyzed the interplay between apex predator presence (grey wolf), human presence, and golden jackal distribution.

Main Results:

• The presence of the grey wolf, an apex predator, is the main factor limiting golden jackal populations.
• Human presence acts as a protective "shield," significantly reducing wolf suppression and allowing jackals to thrive near human settlements.
• Fitted distribution models predict a potential 75% continental range expansion for golden jackals, a sixfold increase from their current distribution.

Conclusions:

• Cascading anthropogenic impacts, mediated by the human-shield effect, can counteract the ecological benefits of apex predator recovery.
• Continued golden jackal expansion is expected due to the persistent human-shield effect, climate warming, and landscape modification, despite potential reductions in suitable areas from wolf recovery.
• Conservation strategies must consider human-wildlife interactions and anthropogenic influences to effectively manage mesocarnivore populations and their ecological roles.