Information-Driven Rule Reduction in Belief Rule Bases for Complex System Modeling

In the analysis of complex engineering systems, managing uncertainty and optimizing information processing structures are critical for reliable state prediction. The Belief Rule Base (BRB) provides a powerful machine learning approach for integrating expert knowledge with uncertain information. However, mitigating the combinatorial complexity of BRBs through conventional structure simplification often causes unintended information loss, introducing systematic prediction biases that undermine reliability. To address the trade-off between system complexity and modeling accuracy, this study proposes an adaptive belief rule base framework integrating sensitivity analysis with posterior consistency calibration (BRB-ARR). First, an information-driven rule screening mechanism is developed to dynamically determine the pruning threshold based on optimized Mean Square Error (MSE) fluctuations. This method effectively filters redundant rules while avoiding the cognitive biases associated with fixed empirical values. Second, a low-dimensional optimization process is employed to readjust the parameter vector, significantly enhancing computational efficiency. Finally, a posterior calibration module is introduced to compensate for the systematic biases caused by dimensionality reduction, strictly preserving the interpretability of the core inference architecture. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, experimental evaluations are conducted on petroleum pipeline networks and liquid propellant launch vehicles. In the petroleum pipeline scenario, the rule base scale is reduced by over 60 percent from 56 to approximately 20 rules, while the parameter dimensionality decreases from 338 to 122. Compared to the conventional model, the mean squared error is reduced from 0.5291 to 0.3619. Furthermore, in the liquid propellant launch vehicle case, the model achieves a prediction accuracy of 98.57 percent with a mean squared error of 0.00029 while reducing the rule scale from 441 to 109. These results demonstrate that the BRB-ARR model effectively balances structural compactness with high precision prediction, offering a novel approach to uncertainty modeling in intelligent systems.