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Predicting the Potential Geographic Distributions of Two Large Predatory Insects, Microstylum dux and M. oberthurii
Zhuoman Zhang1, Zhendong Gao1, Hu Li1
1Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Bio-Resources, State Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Ecological Environment of Qinling-Bashan, Qinling-Bashan Mountains Bioresources Comprehensive Development C.I.C., School of Biological Science & Engineering, Shaanxi University of Technology, Hanzhong 723000, China.
Insects
|May 26, 2026
Summary
Climate change affects robber fly distribution. This study predicts future habitats for *Microstylum dux* and *M. oberthurii*, crucial for natural enemy conservation and biological control.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Zoology
- Biogeography
Background:
- Climate change significantly alters insect distribution and ecological roles.
- Robber flies (*Microstylum dux*, *M. oberthurii*) are important natural enemies, necessitating understanding of their distribution and climate responses for conservation and biological control.
- Predictive modeling is essential for assessing impacts on these predatory insects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the potential distribution of *Microstylum dux* and *M. oberthurii* under current and future climate scenarios.
- To identify key climatic variables influencing their habitats and analyze niche dynamics.
- To inform conservation strategies and biological control programs for these robber fly species.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a parameter-optimized biomod2 ensemble model for distribution prediction.
- Analyzed key bioclimatic variables, including precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) and mean diurnal range (bio2).
- Assessed centroid shifts, niche width, and niche overlap dynamics for both species.
Main Results:
- Current suitable habitats are concentrated in southeast China, with future total area remaining stable but structurally reorganized.
- Highly suitable habitats are predicted to expand, while moderately suitable areas may contract under future climates.
- Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) and mean diurnal range (bio2) were identified as key drivers. *M. dux* is a niche specialist, while *M. oberthurii* is a generalist, exhibiting complex niche overlap dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The study provides crucial insights into the climatic responses and future distribution of *Microstylum dux* and *M. oberthurii*.
- Findings support the conservation of these natural enemies and the formulation of effective biological control strategies.
- Understanding niche specialization and overlap dynamics is vital for predicting species interactions under climate change.
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