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The behavioural spillover effect: modelling behavioural interdependencies in multi-pathogen dynamics.

Leah LeJeune1,2, Omar Saucedo1,2, Lauren M Childs1,2

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA.

Journal of Biological Dynamics
|May 26, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 reduced other infections like influenza, demonstrating "behavioral spillover." This highlights how public health responses to one disease impact the spread of others through behavioral changes.

Keywords:
92-1092D30Epidemic modelsequilibria analysisidentifiabilityrisk response

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology and Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Behavioral Science

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic saw a decrease in influenza cases, despite no known cross-immunity.
  • Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented for COVID-19 may have inadvertently affected other infectious diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the phenomenon of 'behavioral spillover,' where interventions for one disease impact the transmission dynamics of others.
  • To analyze how perceived risk and behavioral responses to one pathogen influence the spread of co-circulating pathogens.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics with behavioral feedback loops.
  • Analysis of short-term and long-term epidemiological patterns under varying intervention scenarios.
  • Identification of conditions for disease co-existence and prevalence shifts.

Main Results:

  • Behavioral spillover can significantly alter the transmission dynamics of multiple pathogens.
  • Interventions targeting one disease can lead to substantial reductions in other infections.
  • Parameter spaces were identified where diseases co-exist or shift in prevalence due to behavioral interdependencies.

Conclusions:

  • Observed declines in influenza and other infections during the COVID-19 pandemic are consistent with behavioral spillover effects.
  • Understanding behavioral interdependencies is crucial for predicting and managing infectious disease waves.
  • Public health strategies should consider the indirect impacts of NPIs on the broader infectious disease landscape.