How does rural population aging affect agricultural green development in China?

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Rural Sociology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Rapid population aging presents significant challenges to socioeconomic development and agricultural green development (AGD).
• The micro-level impacts of rural population aging on AGD are not well understood.
• China's demographic shift towards an older population necessitates understanding its effects on sustainable agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact and mechanisms of rural population aging on agricultural green development (AGD) from a farmer's micro-level perspective.
• To investigate how agricultural socialized services influence AGD in aging rural populations.
• To identify policy implications for mitigating the negative effects of population aging on sustainable agriculture.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the China Family Panel Studies (2018, 2020, 2022).
• Employed the instrumental variable two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) method for robust analysis.
• Examined the effects on both economic (output) and environmental (chemical inputs) benefits of AGD.

Main Results:

• Rural population aging significantly hinders AGD, reducing it by 0.346.
• The negative impact is more pronounced in western China, primarily affecting economic benefits (agricultural output).
• Agricultural socialized services adoption by older adults improves output and reduces chemical inputs, but high service prices lead to farmland abandonment.

Conclusions:

• Addressing rural population aging's impact on AGD requires curbing farmland abandonment.
• Enhancing accessibility and affordability of agricultural socialized services for older adults is crucial.
• Policy interventions are needed to support sustainable agricultural practices amidst demographic shifts.