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Antifragility: A Cross-Cutting Concept for Understanding Ecological Responses to Variability.

Jonas Wickman1,2, Christopher A Klausmeier1,2,3,4, Elena Litchman1,2,3

  • 1W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, Michigan 49060.

The American Naturalist
|May 26, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Environmental variability impacts ecosystems. We propose "antifragility," where performance improves with variability, as a unifying concept for ecological research, especially under global change.

Keywords:
Jensen’s inequalitybet hedgingenvironmental variabilityseasonalitytemporal variability

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Environmental variability, including temporal fluctuations and intermittent perturbations, is a pervasive factor in ecological systems.
  • While the role of temporal variability is acknowledged, a unifying concept to describe responses across species, communities, and ecosystems is lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and explore the concept of "antifragility" as a high-level framework for understanding ecological responses to variability.
  • To demonstrate the utility and applicability of antifragility in ecological contexts, particularly concerning ecosystem services and interspecific competition.

Main Methods:

  • Review and conceptualization of antifragility, originally from economics, for ecological applications.
  • Development and analysis of two mathematical models to illustrate antifragility in ecosystem services and competition dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Antifragility, defined as increased performance with variability, offers a novel perspective on ecological dynamics.
  • Mathematical models demonstrate the potential for antifragility in ecosystem services and competition, highlighting its broad applicability.
  • The study also addresses potential nuances and misapplications of the antifragility concept.

Conclusions:

  • Antifragility can serve as a unifying concept to coordinate research on ecological responses to environmental variability.
  • Under global change, where environmental variability is predicted to shift, antifragility provides a valuable lens for future ecological studies.
  • This concept can help researchers better understand and predict the effects of changing environmental conditions on ecological systems.