[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Prediction of Water Conservation in Qinling Mountains Based on the...

As a crucial ecological security barrier and a key water conservation area in China, the Qinling Mountains hold significant ecological strategic importance. To explore the spatial distribution, temporal variation characteristics, and impacts of future land use changes on water conservation in the Qinling Mountains, this study integrated the InVEST and PLUS models to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in water conservation from 1985 to 2023 and to predict water conservation under three land use scenarios-natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection-in 2035. The results indicate that: ① The average water conservation in the Qinling Mountains from 1985 to 2023 was 331.65 mm, exhibiting a fluctuating trend over time. Spatially, water conservation presented a distinct pattern characterized by higher values in the central region, higher levels in the west than in the east, and higher levels in the south than in the north, with significant regional differences. ② In terms of land use types, forests played a dominant role in water conservation, with an average annual total water conservation volume of 177.42×10⁸ m³, which was substantially higher than that of other land types. ③ Under the natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios, the total water conservation volume in 2035 was projected to be 226.04×10⁸, 225.47×10⁸, and 227.36×10⁸ m³, respectively, representing increases of 5.23×10⁸, 4.66×10⁸, and 6.55×10⁸ m³ compared to those in 2023. This study provides valuable insights for scientifically assessing regional water security and predicting future water resource trends.