[Multi-scenario Simulation of Evolution of Production-living-ecological Space and Carbon Stock Assessment in the...

The evolution of the production-living-ecological space (PLES) pattern in the Yellow River Basin will significantly influence the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. Scientifically elucidating its response mechanisms holds substantial practical importance for establishing a high-quality regional territorial space system and achieving the "dual carbon" strategic goals. Based on the InVEST and PLUS models, we assessed the spatial evolution of the PLES and carbon stock in the Yellow River Basin and predicted the dynamic evolution of the spatial evolution of the PLES and carbon stock in the Yellow River Basin in 2030 under the three scenarios of natural development, economic development, and ecological protection. The results show that: ① The spatial differentiation of the PLES in the Yellow River Basin was pronounced. The ecological space was the main land type, accounting for approximately 80% of the entire basin, mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of the basin, while the lower reaches were mainly production space and living space. ② From 1990 to 2020, the area of industrial and mining production space and urban living space expanded significantly, mainly due to the transfer of agricultural production space and grassland ecological space. The transfer from high-carbon-density land types to low-carbon-density land types led to a cumulative reduction of 13 396.02×10⁴ tons of carbon storage. ③ By 2030, the carbon storage in the PLES of the Yellow River Basin under the three scenarios will all decrease. The carbon storage under the scenarios of natural development, economic development, and ecological protection will respectively decrease to 6 270.57×10⁴, 7 621.71×10⁴, and 3 375.11.9×10⁴ tons. This research provides a crucial reference for territorial spatial planning and the improvement of carbon sink capacity in the Yellow River Basin.