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Use of Principal Components for Scaling Up Topographic Models to Map Soil Redistribution and Soil Organic Carbon
Published on: October 16, 2018
[Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Assessment in Arid Region of Northwest China Based on the
Hong-Xia Yang1, Hao He1, Bei Liu1
1School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China.
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of increasing global climate change and human activities, the impact of land use change on carbon storage has become a significant issue in ecosystem service research, particularly in the ecologically fragile arid regions, which poses serious challenges to climate regulation and ecological sustainability. To address this issue, this study focuses on the arid region of northwest China, systematically analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in land use patterns from 2000 to 2020 and their impact on regional carbon storage. The aim is to explore the potential impacts of land use changes on the evolution of carbon storage functions under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and economic development. This research employs the InVEST model to assess the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage, utilizes the PLUS model to perform multi-scenario simulations, and incorporates the Geodetector method to identify the main driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results indicate that: ① Over the past 20 years, land use changes in the northwest arid region have been significant, with continuous expansion of cultivated and construction lands, while grassland areas have first decreased and then increased, and forest and unused lands have substantially degraded. Notably, the increase in cultivated land area is particularly prominent, whereas the areas of forest and unused lands have shown a declining trend； grassland experienced a continuous reduction from 2000 to 2015, followed by a recovery from 2015 to 2020. ② In terms of carbon storage trends, carbon storage in the northwest arid region increased annually from 2000 to 2020, reaching 9.01×109 t in 2020, an increase of over 1.68×108 t compared to that in 2000, with grassland consistently contributing the most to carbon storage. ③ In the multi-scenario simulations, the carbon storage levels for 2030 under the natural development, ecological protection, and economic development scenarios were projected to be 9.10×109 t, 9.11×109 t, and 9.09×109 t, respectively, highlighting significant impacts of different development paths on carbon storage. Among these, the ecological protection scenario showed the greatest increase in carbon storage, indicating that reinforcing ecological protection measures can effectively enhance the carbon storage capacity of the region. ④ NDVI has been identified as a key driving factor explaining the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the northwest arid region, with a q value of 0.432 7. The interaction of NDVI with factors such as soil sand content and climate showed a significant two-factor enhancement effect, improving the explanation of spatial differences in carbon storage. This research reveals the close coupling relationship between land use changes and carbon storage functions, providing scientific evidence for ecological protection, optimal allocation of land resources, and strategies for enhancing carbon sinks in arid regions.
