[Spatial Optimization Simulation of Land Use in Anhui Province Under the "Dual Carbon Goals"]

To investigate rational strategies for the spatial optimization of land use, thereby facilitating the transition of regional land utilization toward a low-carbon emission and enhanced carbon sequestration paradigm, this study takes Anhui Province as an example. Land use change characteristics were analyzed based on land use data from 1980 to 2020 using land use dynamic degree and transfer matrix methods. By coupling the gray multi-objective programming model (GMOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS), five scenarios were constructed-natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), high carbon storage development (HCD), and sustainable development (SD)-to predict the land use patterns in 2030. The results showed that: ① From 1980 to 2020, the areas of paddy fields, drylands, and forestland in Anhui Province decreased by 3 012.15 km², 1 674.4 km², and 362.92 km², respectively, while construction land increased by 4 543.94 km². The most drastic changes occurred from 2010 to 2020, with a comprehensive dynamic degree of 11.11%. The primary transition feature was the conversion of paddy fields and drylands into construction land. ② Under the ED scenario, construction land expanded to 17 952.99 km² (an increase of 2.14% in proportion), accounting for 89.85% of the total economic benefits. Under the EP scenario, forestland area increased by 2.29%, yielding the highest ecological benefits (357.272 billion yuan). Under the HCD scenario, the proportions of paddy fields and forestland increased by 2.34% and 2.29%, respectively, and land use achieved the highest carbon storage benefits (34.975 billion yuan). The SD scenario achieved synergistic optimization of economic (8 524.062 billion yuan), ecological (345.338 billion yuan), and carbon storage benefits (34.025 billion yuan), balancing land use development across all categories. ③ Spatially, under the ND and ED scenarios, construction land expansion was concentrated in the Hefei-Lu'an border area, primarily through conversions of paddy fields and drylands. Under the EP, HCD, and SD scenarios, forestland increased significantly in the southern Anhui mountainous areas and the Dabie Mountains Region, mainly converted from paddy fields and drylands. Dryland-to-paddy field transitions were predominantly distributed along the Huaihe River and Yangtze River. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing territorial space and achieving the "Dual Carbon Goals" in Anhui Province.