[Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Adaptation Mechanism in Vegetation NPP in China's Coastal Areas Driven by Climate Change...

As a globally typical land-sea interaction zone and a region of intense human activity, China's coastal area is subject to compounded pressures from climate change and rapid urbanization. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in this region is of great significance for ecological conservation and high-quality development. Based on MODIS data, meteorological records, and land use data, vegetation NPP in China's coastal areas was estimated for the period from 2000 to 2022. Its spatiotemporal variation characteristics were analyzed, and the response mechanisms to climate and land use changes were examined. Furthermore, scenario-based assessments were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of climate and land use change to NPP dynamics. The results indicate that: From 2000 to 2022, China's coastal vegetation NPP exhibited a highly significant increasing trend with a distinct south-north spatial gradient. Overall, 81.52% of the area showed NPP growth, with 55.00% reaching statistically highly significant levels. The highest growth rate occurred in the South China coastal region [14.69 g·(m²·a)^-1], while the North China coastal region recorded the lowest increase [3.47 g·(m²·a)^-1]. Climate change-particularly solar radiation (showing positive correlations across the entire region)-was the primary driver. However, land use transformation exerted dual effects: Conversion of cropland to forest significantly enhanced NPP, whereas conversion to impervious surfaces suppressed growth, with the East China coastal region identified as the sole sub-region primarily driven by land use change. Ecosystems analysis revealed cropland and forest dynamics dominated by climate forcing, while impervious surfaces responded predominantly to land use changes. This study elucidates the coupled human-natural mechanisms governing coastal ecosystems, providing scientific insights for regional ecological management aligned with "Dual Carbon" goals.