[Optimization of Carbon Balance Zoning of County Territorial Space Based on the Evolution of Urban Spatial...

Establishing a comprehensive carbon balance zoning framework based on urban spatial morphology evolution characteristics is crucial for promoting regional sustainable development. By analyzing data including landscape pattern indices, energy consumption data, and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), the evolution of urban spatial morphology and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon balance in 103 county-level administrative regions in Inner Mongolia from 2002 to 2022 were investigated. Geodetector was applied to evaluate the impact of morphological factors on carbon balance, and K-means clustering was applied to classify urban development patterns. The economic contribution coefficient (ECC) and ecological support coefficient (ESC) were introduced to analyze energy utilization efficiency and carbon sink capacity. Finally, an optimized territorial carbon balance zoning framework integrating urban spatial morphology was constructed. The results showed that: ① From 2002 to 2022, morphological factors at the county level in Inner Mongolia showed an overall upward trend, with high values of built-up patch area and quantity concentrated in eastern and central regions, while patch density and edge density remained generally low, and patch adjacency percentage and cohesion index were relatively high. ② From 2002 to 2022, the carbon balance coefficient at the county level in Inner Mongolia showed a general decline, exhibiting a "low in the southwest, high in the northeast" spatial pattern. ③ Urban patch density was a key factor affecting the carbon balance coefficient, with the interaction between urban patch density and built-up patch adjacency percentage being the most significant. ④ Based on factors significantly influencing carbon balance and urban expansion intensity as zoning criteria, four development patterns were classified. These patterns were integrated into carbon balance zoning, resulting in fifteen comprehensive zones with differentiated regulatory strategies proposed. These findings provide a scientific basis for carbon balance zoning governance in the territorial space of Inner Mongolia.