[Simulation and Evaluation of the Synergistic Technology of Ecological Restoration in Baiyangdian Upstream Basin...

This study evaluated the potential and necessity of implementing the synergistic technology of ecological restoration targeting vegetation, ecology, and habitats within the Baiyangdian upstream basin, a critical component of the Xiongan New Area's environmental strategy. Utilizing the coupled PLUS-InVEST model, this research simulated key ecosystem service indicators for the year 2036 under synergistic restoration scenarios. Analyses identified spatiotemporal change drivers, compared differences between individual and synergistic techniques, assessed progress towards the 2035 interim targets, and quantified the contribution of coordinated implementation to these goals. Key findings demonstrated that synergistic implementation significantly amplified the effectiveness of singular restoration techniques, creating mutually reinforcing outcomes essential for future basin rehabilitation. Population growth emerged as the dominant driver of projected land-use change, averaging a 17.44% contribution across land types, highlighting its critical role in planning future interventions. Synergistic techniques substantially improved key metrics: forest-grassland coverage reached 46.11%, water body area expanded to 1 033.37 km², habitat quality increased by 2.47%, and carbon storage rose by 1.09%, collectively indicating strong potential for achieving the 2035 targets. The basin-level comprehensive index for ecosystem services increased by 0.002, primarily linked to concurrent gains in habitat quality and carbon storage. While localized decreases in ecosystem services occurred, these were predominantly associated with variations in carbon storage dynamics across different urban areas. The results confirm that the synergistic technology of ecological restoration positively contribute to Baiyangdian's recovery, possess significant potential for enhancing future ecosystem services, and are instrumental in meeting the 2035 interim objectives. This analysis provides concrete evidence and actionable guidance for optimizing Baiyangdian ecological restoration efforts and promoting regional sustainable development.