Convergent and divergent brain-cognition development in early adolescence

How functional brain networks and cognition co-evolve during adolescent development remains poorly understood. Using baseline and Year 2 data from 2949 individuals in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, we trained kernel ridge regression models to predict cognitive ability from resting-state functional connectivity. We find that baseline functional connectivity more strongly predicts future cognitive ability than baseline cognitive ability. Models trained on baseline functional connectivity to predict baseline cognition generalize better to Year 2 functional connectivity and cognition, suggesting that brain-cognition relationships strengthen over time. Intriguingly, baseline functional connectivity outperforms longitudinal functional connectivity change in predicting future cognitive ability. While longitudinal functional connectivity change is less reliable than baseline functional connectivity - intraclass correlation coefficient 0.24 vs. 0.56 - shortening scan duration to reduce reliability of baseline functional connectivity does not eliminate the predictive gap. Furthermore, neither baseline functional connectivity nor functional connectivity change meaningfully predicts longitudinal change in cognitive ability. We also identify converging and diverging predictive network features across cross-sectional and longitudinal brain-cognition models - a multivariate twist on Simpson's paradox - with clear sex-specific patterns. Overall, in early adolescence, stable individual differences in brain functional network organization play a more critical role than dynamic changes in shaping future cognitive outcomes.