Temporal trends and patterns in neonatal sepsis mortality across 194 countries, 2000-2021, with projections up to...

Neonatal sepsis remains a leading cause of neonatal mortality, yet comprehensive evaluations of its current and future burden are limited. This study assessed global, regional, and national trends and projected mortality through 2050.

Data from the UN child mortality database (2000-2021) across 194 countries were analyzed. Neonatal sepsis was defined using ICD-10 codes P35-P39, excluding P37.3-P37.4. Trends were assessed using annual percentage change, and mortality was projected under three scenarios: continuation of current trends, convergence to high-income country trends, and attainment of the greatest observed national reduction.

In 2021, the global neonatal sepsis mortality rate was 129.34 per 100,000 live births, a 41.6% reduction since 2000. West and Central Africa had the highest mortality and slowest decline. By 2050, mortality is projected to decline to 61.49 per 100,000.

Despite progress, substantial regional disparities persist, highlighting the need for targeted interventions in high-burden regions.