Short-term load forecasting using a metaheuristic optimized temporal fusion transformer with decomposition technique

Short-term load forecasting plays a vital role in today's modern life to ensure the balance between energy demand and supply. Dynamic variations in weather and electricity consumption patterns can significantly influence load patterns, resulting in complex modeling and challenging forecasting accuracy due to non-stationary, non-linear patterns. Traditional statistical methods are simple and interpretable; however, they struggle to capture temporal and non-linear dependencies. Although machine learning can address these challenges, it struggles with long-range temporal dependency. In contrast, deep learning models can automatically extract temporal patterns and relevant features from raw data. This study proposes a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) based on Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (MVMD) and optimized with the GOAT Optimization Algorithm (GOA). The deep architecture of the transformer model is considered an alternative owing to its self-attention mechanism, its efficiency in capturing long sequences, its parallel processing capabilities, and its interpretability through attention weights, making it suitable for multivariate short-term load forecasting. The significant benefit of combining MVMD with TFT is that it enhances feature extraction by decomposing complex multivariate time series data into components with different frequencies and reduces noise. The MVMD addresses the non-stationary and non-linear challenges of energy load data with reduced complexity and interpretability. Furthermore, the GOAT Optimization Algorithm was incorporated for hyperparameter tuning of the TFT model to enhance its performance. The error in the model is evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE). The proposed model outperforms other comparison models. Finally, the model is interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis to understand the impact of features on the model's prediction.