Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 28, 2026
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Temporal Trends and Model-Based Projections of Female-Specific Cancer Burden Among East Asian Women Aged 55 Years and
Haoyang Hu1,2, Siyuan Zhang2,3, Yingzhe Wang3
1Department of Neurology, The First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Background:
Population aging may substantially influence the burden of female-specific cancers in East Asia. This study assessed temporal trends and model-based projections of breast, cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancer burden among women aged 55 years and older in China, Japan, and South Korea using Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 estimates.
Methods:
We analyzed age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate historical temporal trends, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were applied to generate model-based projections through 2040. Attributable risk factor patterns were described using the GBD comparative risk assessment framework.
Results:
Breast cancer accounted for the largest burden among the four cancer types across the three countries in 2023. Cervical cancer generally showed declining trends, although the magnitude and timing of these changes varied by country. Ovarian and uterine cancer burdens were relatively higher in Japan and South Korea than in China. Model-based projections suggested that the burden of breast, ovarian, and uterine cancers may remain substantial through 2040, particularly in Japan and South Korea. In the GBD risk attribution framework, high body mass index and metabolic risks showed increasing contributions to selected hormone-related cancers, whereas unsafe sex remained the major attributable risk factor for cervical cancer.
Conclusion:
Female-specific cancer burden among women aged 55 years and older in East Asia showed marked heterogeneity across countries and cancer types. These findings should be interpreted as descriptive estimates and model-based projections rather than causal evidence or deterministic predictions. Strengthening age-appropriate screening, HPV-related prevention, metabolic risk management, and continued surveillance may help inform future cancer control strategies in aging East Asian populations.
