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Warming and vegetation greening drive recent surge in flash droughts
Jun Li1,2, Yao Zhang1, Emanuele Bevacqua3
1Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Science Advances
|May 27, 2026
Summary
Flash droughts are increasing due to shifts in their drivers, moving from precipitation to a combination of temperature, transpiration, and precipitation. This surge, driven by human-induced warming and vegetation changes, impacts millions globally.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Artificial Intelligence Applications
Background:
- Flash droughts are increasing in frequency globally.
- The underlying mechanisms driving these changes remain poorly understood.
- Understanding these drivers is crucial for predicting and mitigating drought impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the shifting mechanisms of global flash drought.
- To identify the primary drivers behind the recent surge in flash droughts.
- To assess the impacts of altered flash drought dynamics on human populations and ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) clustering framework.
- Incorporated reanalysis products and Earth system model outputs.
- Analyzed shifts in drought-driving mechanisms from precipitation dominance to compound effects.
Main Results:
- Identified a significant shift in flash drought drivers from precipitation to a compound effect of temperature, transpiration, and precipitation.
- Observed a surge in flash droughts over the past decade, characterized by rapid development, increased severity, and longer duration.
- Attributed this surge primarily to anthropogenic warming and vegetation greening.
- Detected the transition beyond natural variability since 2017, particularly in Eurasia, Amazon, and Africa.
Conclusions:
- Biosphere and atmosphere responses to anthropogenic forcing have altered flash drought drivers.
- The observed changes pose significant threats, affecting approximately 650 million people and reducing gross primary productivity.
- Urgent need for targeted mitigation strategies to address the escalating threat of flash droughts.
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