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Temporary carbon dioxide removal to offset short-lived climate forcers
Yue He1,2, Keywan Riahi2, Matthew J Gidden2,3
1Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|May 27, 2026
Summary
Temporary carbon dioxide removal (CDR) can offset non-CO2 emissions, but not fully offset CO2 emissions like permanent CDR. A new framework suggests crediting temporary CDR for short-lived climate forcers, particularly in agriculture.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Policy
- Carbon Accounting
Background:
- Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is crucial for meeting Paris Agreement temperature goals and net-zero targets.
- Current CDR deployment heavily relies on temporary methods, while permanent solutions face scalability and cost hurdles.
- Existing climate policies often incorrectly assume temporary CDR is equivalent to permanent CDR, contradicting climate science.
Purpose of the Study:
- To challenge the equivalency assumption between temporary and permanent carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
- To explore the potential of temporary CDR as compensation for non-CO2 climate forcers.
- To propose a scientifically-grounded framework for crediting temporary CDR activities.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of physical climate science principles regarding the offsetting capabilities of temporary versus permanent CDR.
- Calculation of CO2 sequestration required to compensate for methane (CH4) emissions using different temporary storage durations (20 and 100 years).
- Development of a critical lifetime threshold to differentiate between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers for CDR applications.
Main Results:
- Temporary CDR cannot fully offset CO2 emissions due to its limited durability, unlike permanent CDR.
- Temporary CDR can effectively compensate for non-CO2 climate forcers, especially short-lived greenhouse gases like methane.
- Specific CO2 amounts are calculated for offsetting CH4 using 20-year (498 kg CO2/kg CH4) and 100-year (101 kg CO2/kg CH4) temporary storage.
- A critical lifetime threshold is proposed to distinguish between forcers suitable for temporary CDR compensation.
Conclusions:
- Temporary CDR's role in climate policy should be re-evaluated, focusing on its capacity to offset non-CO2 emissions.
- A differentiated reporting system based on a critical lifetime threshold is needed for accurate crediting of temporary CDR.
- This framework offers a physical basis for crediting temporary CDR in sectors like agriculture, where non-CO2 emissions are significant.
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