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Related Concept Videos

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Frost Action on Concrete01:27

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 29, 2026

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
06:27

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Published on: June 30, 2020

Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world.

Shiyi Zhang1,2, Qinghong Zhang3,4, John T Allen5

  • 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Nature
|May 27, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will increase global hailstorm damage potential by up to 42.1% by 2100. This shift towards larger hailstones will disproportionately affect mid-high latitudes, impacting disaster prevention strategies.

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Last Updated: May 29, 2026

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
06:27

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Published on: June 30, 2020

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering severe convective storms and associated hazards like hailstorms.
  • Hailstorms are a major cause of weather-related economic losses.
  • Existing research on hailstorms and ACC primarily focuses on regional scales, with limited global assessments of hailstone size.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess global-scale changes in hailstorm characteristics and damage potential under future climate scenarios.
  • To investigate the impact of ACC on hailstone size distribution worldwide.
  • To provide insights for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies related to hailstorms.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted hailstone trajectory simulations using EC-Earth3 ensemble model outputs under historical and future emission scenarios.
  • Cross-validated model outputs through multimodel comparisons.
  • Analyzed changes in temperature, specific humidity, and their effects on hailstone growth and damage potential.

Main Results:

  • Projected a 36.5-42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, dependent on emission scenarios.
  • Observed a global shift towards larger hailstones, with a 37.9-51.8% rise in hailstones ≥30 mm in diameter and a 4.2-12.3% decline in smaller hailstones.
  • Identified regional variations: mid-high latitudes show increased damage potential due to amplified instability, while tropical/monsoonal regions show decreased potential due to moistening and limited hail growth depth.

Conclusions:

  • ACC will lead to significant increases in global hailstorm damage potential, primarily driven by rising temperatures and humidity.
  • Hailstone size distribution will shift towards larger sizes globally, with regional disparities in impact.
  • Findings underscore the non-uniform effects of ACC on hailstorms, necessitating tailored disaster prevention and mitigation efforts worldwide.