Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 29, 2026
06:27
Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world
Shiyi Zhang1,2, Qinghong Zhang3,4, John T Allen5
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|May 27, 2026
Summary
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will increase global hailstorm damage potential by up to 42.1% by 2100. This shift towards larger hailstones will disproportionately affect mid-high latitudes, impacting disaster prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering severe convective storms and associated hazards like hailstorms.
- Hailstorms are a major cause of weather-related economic losses.
- Existing research on hailstorms and ACC primarily focuses on regional scales, with limited global assessments of hailstone size.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess global-scale changes in hailstorm characteristics and damage potential under future climate scenarios.
- To investigate the impact of ACC on hailstone size distribution worldwide.
- To provide insights for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies related to hailstorms.
Main Methods:
- Conducted hailstone trajectory simulations using EC-Earth3 ensemble model outputs under historical and future emission scenarios.
- Cross-validated model outputs through multimodel comparisons.
- Analyzed changes in temperature, specific humidity, and their effects on hailstone growth and damage potential.
Main Results:
- Projected a 36.5-42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, dependent on emission scenarios.
- Observed a global shift towards larger hailstones, with a 37.9-51.8% rise in hailstones ≥30 mm in diameter and a 4.2-12.3% decline in smaller hailstones.
- Identified regional variations: mid-high latitudes show increased damage potential due to amplified instability, while tropical/monsoonal regions show decreased potential due to moistening and limited hail growth depth.
Conclusions:
- ACC will lead to significant increases in global hailstorm damage potential, primarily driven by rising temperatures and humidity.
- Hailstone size distribution will shift towards larger sizes globally, with regional disparities in impact.
- Findings underscore the non-uniform effects of ACC on hailstorms, necessitating tailored disaster prevention and mitigation efforts worldwide.
Related Concept Videos
01:50Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
01:16What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
01:07What is Weather?
Overview
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
01:27Frost Action on Concrete
Concrete structures in cold climates, such as those along roadsides, can retain moisture. This moisture makes them susceptible to frost-related damage when temperatures fall below freezing. Adding moisture worsens the damage during temperature fluctuations, leading to repeated freezing and thawing. De-icing salts, spread over these structures to melt ice, add to the freeze-thaw cycle, and draw even more moisture into the concrete.
This freeze-thaw cycle primarily causes surface scaling, where...
This freeze-thaw cycle primarily causes surface scaling, where...
01:27Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...