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Related Experiment Videos

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Risk in Reproductive-Aged Women.

Sonia M Grandi1, Kristian B Filion2, Jennifer A Hutcheon3

  • 1Child Health Evaluative Sciences Program, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

JACC. Advances
|May 28, 2026
PubMed
Summary

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New cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores are needed for younger women. This study developed a prognostic model including female-specific factors to identify high-risk women in the postpartum period.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Reproductive Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores are not optimized for younger women, lacking sex-specific factors.
  • This limitation hinders accurate CVD risk assessment in women of reproductive age.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a prognostic model for identifying women at high risk of CVD.
  • The model incorporates female-specific risk factors relevant to the postpartum period.

Main Methods:

  • A cohort of 262,891 women aged 15-45 years was established from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database (1999-2017).
  • Models were developed for screening women within the first year postpartum, with incident CVD as the primary outcome.
  • Statistical methods including LASSO and accelerated failure time Weibull models were used, with internal validation via bootstrapping.
Keywords:
cardiovascular diseasepostpartum periodpregnancy complicationsrisk predictionwomen

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Main Results:

  • Over a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 943 women experienced incident CVD.
  • Key predictors included traditional CVD factors and female-specific conditions like polycystic ovary syndrome, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and gestational diabetes.
  • The model demonstrated modest discrimination (C-statistic: 0.637) and good calibration (slope: 0.919).

Conclusions:

  • The developed model, while having modest predictive accuracy, underscores the significance of incorporating sex-specific risk factors for postpartum women.
  • This approach is crucial for improving CVD risk identification in this demographic.