Tracing the Global Trade Trails of Coal-Related CO₂ Emissions and Environmental Health Burdens

Coal combustion contributes greatly to the level of CO₂ emissions, air pollution, and health burdens. International trade classifies coal extraction, coal combustion, and the consumption of goods and services separately. A lack of comprehensive analyses of trade-embodied CO₂ emissions and health damages limits our understanding of the regional responsibilities of these impacts across the chain of coal supply and use. Here we developed an integrated framework combining global coal trade matrices, a multiregional input-output model, GEOS-Chem simulations, and exposure-response modeling to trace coal-related impacts embodied in trade. We show that international coal trade accounted for 45.4 Gt of cumulative CO₂ emissions and an annual average of 74,700 deaths attributable to fine particle exposure during 1992-2020, while international goods and services trade contributed more, at 60.6 Gt and 166,600 annual cases, respectively. Major exporters of coal (Australia and South and Southeast Asia) and importers of associated goods and services (the United States and Western Europe) are responsible for substantial impacts outside their territories. Although imported emissions and associated mortality have peaked in developed regions and China, they keep growing in emerging economies. Expanding South-South trade may further intensify these risks. The findings support equitable international cooperation on phasing out coal to achieve climate and environmental health objectives.