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Development and validation of a MODS risk prediction model for organophosphorus poisoning patients

Helong Yu1, Ke Wang1, Huisong Wu1

  • 1Department of Emergency Medicine, Linquan County People's Hospital, Fuyang, Anhui, China.

Frontiers in Medicine
|May 29, 2026
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

A new model predicts multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning (AOPP) patients. This tool aids early intervention and improves outcomes for AOPP-related MODS.

Area of Science:

  • Toxicology
  • Critical Care Medicine
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is a significant complication in acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning (AOPP), leading to high mortality.
  • Effective prediction models are crucial for timely intervention in AOPP patients at risk of MODS.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive model for MODS in AOPP patients.
  • To utilize a nomogram and machine learning techniques for risk stratification.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective study of 270 AOPP patients.
  • Lasso regression for variable selection and multivariate logistic regression for model construction.
  • Evaluation of model performance using AUC, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

Main Results:

  • 129 (47.8%) of AOPP patients developed MODS.
  • Key predictors identified: heart rate, endotracheal intubation, and blood lactic acid.
  • The nomogram demonstrated high discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.962 and favorable calibration and clinical utility.

Conclusions:

  • A robust risk prediction model for MODS in AOPP patients was developed.
  • The model can aid clinicians in risk assessment and inform intervention strategies.
  • External validation is recommended prior to widespread clinical application.
Keywords:
acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoningblood lactic acidendotracheal intubationheart ratemultiple organ dysfunction syndromenomogramprognosis

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