A nomogram for estimating prevalent gallstone risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: development and validation in a...

Gallbladder stone (GBS) is a frequent complication in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), yet effective tools for baseline risk estimation remain lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinically practical nomogram for individualized GBS risk assessment in T2DM patients using multicenter real-world data.

In this retrospective multicenter study, 1,762 T2DM patients with an intact gallbladder who underwent abdominal ultrasonography at two tertiary hospitals were included. The primary center provided a training set (n = 914) and internal validation set (n = 392), and the second center provided an external validation cohort (n = 456). Logistic regression was used to build a nomogram for ultrasound-detected GBS at the index visit, and its performance was evaluated by ROC analysis, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Six factors-age ≥ 60 years, longer diabetes duration, elevated HbA1c, FPG, TG, and presence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN)-were independently associated with GBS. The nomogram showed good discrimination in the training (AUC = 0.82), internal (0.81), and external (0.82) validation cohorts. Calibration curves demonstrated consistency between predicted and actual risk, and DCA confirmed clinical usefulness.

This nomogram offers a simple, non-invasive tool for estimating baseline GBS risk in T2DM patients, and may assist in risk stratification, targeted monitoring, and preventive counseling in outpatient diabetes care.

Not applicable.