Multi-scenario land use simulation for sustainable spatial management using the MOP-PLUS coupled framework: Evidence...

Rapid urbanization and stringent spatial regulations have intensified conflicts among ecological protection, farmland conservation, and urban development, particularly in metropolitan fringe areas. Effective land use optimization and multi-scenario simulation are essential for sustainable environmental management, yet most existing studies focus on regional or city scales, limiting their applicability for fine-scale decision-making. This study uses Xiji Town in metropolitan Beijing as a case study to analyze land use dynamics from 2004 to 2022 and develops a coupled multi-objective programming and patch-generating land use simulation (MOP-PLUS) framework for optimizing land allocation and simulating future land use under multiple policy scenarios. The framework integrates socio-economic and environmental constraints to identify driving mechanisms and evaluate spatial responses for sustainable land management. Results show that land use patterns underwent significant structural transformation, driven by urbanization and policy interventions, characterized by continuous farmland decline, rapid forestland expansion, and a shift in construction land from outward growth to internal optimization. Land use changes are jointly shaped by natural suitability and socio-economic factors, with socio-economic drivers dominating construction land expansion and natural factors governing ecological land distribution. Multi-scenario simulations reveal substantial divergence in land use structure and spatial configuration, with the sustainable development scenario achieving the most balanced outcome among ecological protection, farmland preservation, and urban development needs. The MOP-PLUS framework provides a practical decision-support tool for small-scale land management and offers transferable insights for sustainable spatial planning and land resource optimization in metropolitan fringe regions.