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The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas
Tamer Oraby1, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah2,3
1School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, 1201 W. University Dr., Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA. tamer.oraby@utrgv.edu.
BMC Infectious Diseases
|May 30, 2026
Summary
Texas faced a major measles outbreak in 2025. Combined school closures and vaccination campaigns effectively reduced measles cases, highlighting the importance of public health interventions for vaccine-preventable diseases.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Modeling
Background:
- Texas experienced a significant measles outbreak in 2025, with 762 cases reported by mid-August.
- Measles is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe outcomes, primarily affecting unvaccinated populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate counterfactual scenarios for measles control in Texas.
- To analyze the effectiveness of daycare/school closures and reactive vaccination strategies.
Main Methods:
- An age-structured multi-stage SEIR model was developed to simulate the 2025 Texas measles outbreak.
- Bayesian inference was used to fit the model to case data, estimating the effective reproduction number and generating predictive trajectories.
Main Results:
- The estimated effective reproduction number had a median of [Formula: see text] (95% HDI: 2.1-5.4).
- Combined vaccination and short-term closures could reduce cases by up to 21%.
- Both interventions showed diminishing marginal returns, with combined closures most effective in the initial weeks.
Conclusions:
- Decreased immunity levels likely contributed to the 2025 Texas measles outbreak.
- Extended daycare/school closures combined with swift, reactive vaccination campaigns are effective for measles outbreak containment.
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